Global Scenarios
Why Scenarios
We observe the embryonic shape of planetary society, but cannot know what kind of creature will one day be born. The geography of the future is a terra incognita that lies beyond the ken of scientific projection and political prophesy. Although we cannot forecast what will be, scenarios help us to imagine what could be. Scenarios are stories about how the global system might unfold from existing patterns, new developments, and human choices. They are thought experiments for illuminating the possibilities, alerting us to the dangers ahead, and inspiring corrective action. These tales of the future are most richly told in the complementary languages of words and numbers: narrative descriptions of qualitative aspects such as values, behaviors, and institutions, along with data-rich simulations of quantifiable variables such as population, economy, resources and environmental impact. Integrated global scenario analysis is a powerful tool for understanding where we are going, where we want to go, and how to get there. Exploring the frontiers of the possible gives soul, sight and direction to the blind march of history.